NFL Postseason Scenarios: Key Deciders & Outcomes for the Season Finale.
Entering the final week of the regular NFL campaign, just two postseason berths remain open. However, far more is on the line, such as the highly desired #1 rankings in both conferences and four division titles.
The schedule makers have produced a dramatic ending, with the two remaining postseason places on the line in two direct winner-take-all matchups.
NFL Postseason Picture as of Week 18
American Football Conference Rankings
- Denver Broncos (13-3)
- New England (13-3)
- Jacksonville (12-4)
- Pittsburgh (9-7) / Baltimore Ravens (8-8)
- Houston (11-5)
- Los Angeles Chargers (11-5)
- Buffalo Bills (11-5)
The winner of the Steelers-Ravens game will claim the #4 spot and a home game in the first playoff round. At the same time, the Bills and Los Angeles are set as wildcard entrants.
The Texans need a win and a Jacksonville loss to climb from the fifth seed to the third seed. Denver will secure the #1 ranking with a win, but a setback could pave the way for the Patriots or the Jaguars to snatch it.
National Football Conference Rankings
- Seattle (13-3)
- Chicago Bears (11-5)
- Philadelphia (11-5)
- Carolina Panthers (8-8) / Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-9)
- San Francisco 49ers (12-4)
- L.A. Rams (11-5)
- Green Bay Packers (9-6)
The South division is up for grabs by the winner of the Carolina-Tampa Bay matchup, granting them the fourth seed. Notably, the Panthers could still claim the divisional title even with a loss, contingent on other outcomes.
The Packers are locked into the seventh spot. The marquee matchup, though, is the battle for the #1 seed in the NFC between the Seahawks and San Francisco, with a week off and home-field advantage on the line.
How the NFL Postseason Works
The #1 team in each conference earns a crucial bye week and home-field advantage throughout the postseason.
During Wildcard Weekend, the remaining six playoff teams compete: the #2 team plays the #7 team, #3 plays #6, and fourth hosts fifth.
For the second round, the #1 seeds join the competition, hosting the lowest remaining seed. The conference title games are then hosted by the highest seed, highlighting the immense value of securing that #1 ranking.
AFC North Decider: A Brutal Finale
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens (01:20, Monday)
This bitter rivalry reaches its climax in the last contest of the regular season. With the AFC North and a postseason spot on the line, this is a true win-or-go-home situation.
Pittsburgh have been inconsistent this season, while Baltimore struggled early but remain in the hunt. Player availability could be decisive: The Steelers may be without key target their top wideout, while Baltimore's quarterback their MVP QB is a doubt with a back injury.
Running back the powerful back might emerge as the difference-maker for Baltimore in what is set up as a physical, defensive battle.
Battle for #1 in the NFC
San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks (01:00, Sunday)
More than just the division title is at stake when the Seahawks visits San Francisco. The winner secures the NFC's top seed and the road to the championship game that it provides.
This matchup features an explosive 49ers offense against a dominant Seahawks defense. With QB Brock Purdy came back, San Francisco have been the NFL's highest scorers. On the other hand, Seattle's unit is rated second best in the NFL.
The Seahawks' quarterback their passer must avoid mistakes that have plagued him this year. The team that wins this clash earns a huge edge for the playoff run.
The NFC South's Uncertain Finish
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Carolina Panthers (21:30 Saturday)
Neither team enters this contest with strong form. The Buccaneers have lost seven of eight, while Carolina have missed chances to secure the division.
For Carolina it's simple: a victory gets them in. For Tampa Bay, the scenario is more complex. Even with a win, they need help from the Falcons-Saints game to claim the division crown.
Three-Way Fight for AFC Supremacy
Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars (18:00, Sunday)
New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins (21:25, Sunday)
Denver Broncos vs. Los Angeles Chargers (21:25, Sunday)
The Denver Broncos control their destiny for the #1 AFC spot. A victory over a Chargers team likely to rest starters gets it done.
Should Denver falter, the opportunity arises for the Patriots. A New England victory combined with a Denver defeat would give the #1 ranking to Bill Belichick's team.
The Jacksonville Jaguars are the dark horse. They need a win and defeats for both Denver and New England to achieve an unlikely rise to the top. More pressingly, a Jaguars loss could allow them to be overtaken by the Houston Texans in the AFC South.
NFL Week 18: Complete Schedule
Saturday, 3 January
Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (21:30)
Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers (01:00, Sunday)
Sunday, 4 January
New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons (18:00)
Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals (18:00)
Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings (18:00)
Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants (18:00)
Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars (18:00)
Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans (18:00)
New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills (21:25)
Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots (21:25)
Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears (21:25)
Los Angeles Chargers @ Denver Broncos (21:25)
Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders (21:25)
Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Rams (21:25)
Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles (21:25)
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers (01:20, Monday)
