Pitches, Balls and Reserves – Where the Ashes Will Be Won and Lost
Two days remaining.
The English side's opening match in Australia starts on the morning of Friday.
Drawing on analysis from CricViz, we look at where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be decided.
It's tough to make runs, isn't it?
Batsmen on both teams of the Ashes divide might be wondering why they are even planning to turn up.
A lot of the pre-series discussion has centred around the apparent challenge of batting successfully, particularly for the opening match on a Perth pitch described as a "lush, challenging surface".
Regarding batting in Australia, particularly against fast bowling, no nation has been more difficult in which to accumulate runs over the last five years.
Two key factors for this: pitches and balls.
Taken as a collective, the pitches produced in Australia have recently proved to be the fastest, highest bouncing and among the most inconsistent in the world.
Pace and variable bounce are the perfect recipe for tough batting.
A common belief from English cricket paints the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a fast bowler.
A new version of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, resulting in more seam movement.
Seam bowling is a more significant asset than swing in this country.
Since the new Kookaburra, fast bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.
Test match cricket is about solving problems.
When bowlers dominate, batsmen's contributions can be the deciding factor, and vice-versa.
Should this series be bowler-dominated, a batter could have the chance to be the difference between the two teams.
What’s happening with the Australia seamers?
For once, England have arrived in Australia with their fast-bowling unit largely intact, while the home side are the ones hit by injuries.
Captain Pat Cummins will miss at least the first Test with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unspecified time because of a hamstring injury.
Pat Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first paired as a trio for the 2017-18 Ashes.
From that point, they have taken together 81% of the wickets taken by Australia pace bowlers in matches in Australia.
The Australian team have seldom needed alternatives because of the success and robustness of the 'leading trio'.
When Australia have needed a back-up, Scott Boland has been sensational, taking 62 dismissals in 14 matches at an average below 17.
In addition to Boland, other bowlers of Australia's supporting cast have performed well.
Michael Neser, Jhye Richardson and James Pattinson all average below 30 in domestic Tests.
The last time Australia entered a home Test without Cummins and Hazlewood, and lost, was in the year 2012.
On the last two occasions they have competed in Australia without the pair, they have triumphed by a total of 694 runs, featuring a win against England in Adelaide previously.
On the rare occasions Australia have had to go past their star fast bowlers, results have not been affected – England should take heed.
Tough at the top
Remember when England struggled to identify an opening batsman to go alongside Alastair Cook?
Sir Chef went through partners faster than Watford go through managers.
Not anymore.
Ever since Ben Duckett and Zak Crawley were paired at the England opening slot at the close of 2022, no opening pair in the world has scored more runs together.
Their success as a partnership has been a reason in Zak Crawley being supported through some patchy form.
Crawley, who famously struck the first ball of the previous Ashes for four, has also been recognized as having the game for Australian conditions.
His average increases when the pace increases.
In comparison, Australia's top order is in a ongoing change, still seeking to fill the gap left by David Warner.
After Warner's departure at the beginning of 2024, Usman Khawaja has walked out with five various openers in 15 matches.
Yet to debut Weatherald looks set to become the sixth opener in 16 on Friday, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening combo.
It is not just the openers that has posed issues for Australia.
Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was shifted to open for the World Test Championship final, then dropped entirely.
Domestic form has brought him back, most likely returning to number three.
Across seven matches in 2025, the Australian top order average a collective of 25.37.
Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and West Indies have done worse.
Battle of Spin
For two so evenly-matched teams, there is one area where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin bowling.
Australia's Nathan Lyon, all 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spinners to play the game.
Shoaib Bashir of England is a somewhat successful selection punt, looking short of form after a broken finger, while Will Jacks is primarily a batter.
It would seem logical for the hosts to want Lyon at the front, but bowling spin has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the last decade.
During that period, spinners have averaged almost 44 in this country, albeit Lyon's record holds up well compared to the struggles of visiting tweakers.
Lyon's other issue is physically getting on to bowl.
Recall the potency of fast bowling?
It is reducing the time Lyon has with ball in hand.
In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Nathan Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.
In the previous year, in five matches against India, it was only half as many.
Tests in Australia are 25% shorter since the new Kookaburra was introduced, meaning Lyon has less space to influence the game.
Favorable Conditions?
The English team have a unfortunate tendency of being beaten in an away Ashes before Santa Claus has loaded his sleigh.
The series began in the Gabba, where they have failed to win since 1986.
In recent times, that has been followed by a day-night Test in Adelaide Oval.
England have one win in seven day-night matches worldwide, while the hosts have won 13 out of 14.
Then comes Perth, a venue England have played at on 14 occasions since 1970 and won only once, against a weakened Australia in 1978.
On this tour, the first three stops on the itinerary are the same, only in a rearranged order and under different circumstances.
The Perth Test stages an series opener for the first occasion, not at the fabled Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the modern Perth Stadium.
It remains a tough assignment, though one the visitors tackle with no historical baggage.
Brisbane is the venue for the second match, the day-nighter.
The most recent occasion Australia played a day-night Test at the Gabba, they were stunned by West Indies.
Likewise, the Aussies are now unaccustomed to playing day matches at the usual day-night venue Adelaide.
In the two red-ball matches played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to the Indian team, in 2018.
The re-jigged schedule gives England a new opportunity at starting an away Ashes well, though with risks.
The home side have secured victory in four out of five matches played at Perth Stadium, though the one defeat came in the most recent match – against India last year.
Each match at the new ground has been claimed by the team setting a target.
The English often complicate floodlit Tests, when data suggest the pink ball does not behave very differently from its traditional red ball.
The challenge in {day-night matches|
